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Test - Indicative economic multipliers (Input-Output tables)

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Updates

21st July 2026

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Main information

Designation
Official statistics in development
Data provider
Welsh Government
Data source
No specific source from data provider
Time period covered
January 2019 to December 2019
Dataset ID
403bf2ec-643b-4a76-a184-4d81257a69e6

Overview

Summary of dataset and variables

This table presents output, Gross Value Added (GVA), and employment multipliers and effects to accompany the Input-Output Tables for Wales.

Multipliers and effects can be used to estimate the direct and indirect impact of a change in industry output using a range of economic (and non-economic) metrics.

The data table presents Type 1 and Type 2 multipliers for output, GVA and employment. Both types capture direct and indirect effects, while Type 2 multipliers additionally capture the induced effects of changes to employment income.

Users interested in deriving their own Leontief matrix may find the output, GVA and employment figures presented in the table useful. The last is especially important, as employment figures cannot be derived from the Input-Output Table alone, and the required total employed workforce for Input-Output sectors cannot be directly estimated from published ONS and Welsh Government sources.

Data collection or calculation

The multipliers and effects presented in this data table are derived using the Input-Output Table for Wales. A detailed methodology for constructing the table is provided in the associated statistical article.

The method for producing output, GVA, and employment multipliers broadly follows the approach outlined in Miller and Blair (2019) (Cambridge University Press).

One important departure relates to the calculation of Type 2 multipliers. Rather than dividing household consumption expenditure by the column total, we divide it by total household income from all sources, as reported in the Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) statistical output published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). For example, the 2019 denominator for Wales was £77,606m. This is consistent with the approach taken by the Scottish Government.

This approach reflects the fact that not all household consumption is funded by earned income. A significant portion is financed through unearned income such as pensions, dividends, and other transfers. Including these unearned sources in the feedback loop would artificially inflate the effect of earned income in generating further rounds of household spending.

The full-time equivalent (FTE) employment estimates presented in this data table are bespoke and should only be used for Input-Output analysis. Estimates of employee numbers are derived using the Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES). These are supplemented with data on self-employment and HM Forces jobs in Wales from NOMIS Workforce Jobs by industry section. These figures are apportioned to industry divisions using UK-wide Labour Force Survey (LFS) data at the two-digit SIC code level. These estimates are then aggregated to match the published IO sectors. Effectively, self-employment estimates are therefore constrained to the Workforce Jobs totals reported for Wales at the sector level but apportioned within sectors using UK data. Agriculture employment estimates are taken directly from the Welsh Agricultural Survey. A simple 0.5 weight is applied to part-time workers to derive full-time equivalents.

Further information on the methodology can be found in an accompanying statistical article.

Statistical quality

Input-Output analysis using multipliers is a form of partial equilibrium modelling. Changes in the structure of the supply side of the economy are not modelled. This has several important implications and limitations that should be considered when interpreting the data.

Crucially, it is important to note that the multipliers presented here will tend to overstate indirect impacts, but by an unknown amount. Multiplier analysis using the Input-Output tables works best when the impacts are relatively small compared to the size of the relevant supplying industries (and their workforces).

Further information on data quality, methodology, and guidance on appropriate use can be found in the accompanying statistical article. Users are highly encouraged to consult this document before undertaking any analysis using the data.

The multipliers and effects are underpinned by the Input-Output Table for Wales. As official statistics in development, there are areas in the compilation process where the data is less robust. These limitations were highlighted in a statistical article published on the Welsh Government website alongside the initial release.

Related reports

Published by

Organisation
Welsh Government
Contact email
inputoutputtables@gov.wales